U.S. president Donald Trump says he sent a letter to Leader of the Islamic republic of Iran to ask that the two leaders “negotiate” over Iran’s nuclear program. Without any direct mention of the letter Ayatollah Khamenei said the insistence of certain bullying powers on negotiations is NOT aimed at resolving issues, but rather at imposing their expectations and will. He added, these bullying powers create a commotion and instigate chaos if Tehran does not agree to negotiate. However, he emphasized that Tehran will NOT accept the demands of those bullying powers. This was not the first time Ayatollah Khamenei rejected Trump offer, during his first term as president the Iranian leader did not accept his letter because of “Trump attitude”.
The leader’s remarks come as U.S. has intensified policy of ‘Maximum pressure’ on Tehran. Washington has decided to end a sanctions waiver that had allowed Iraq to buy electricity from Iran. The list of Trump’s anti-Tehran moves goes on and on however, these measures are not new for Tehran. During his first term Trump withdrew from 2015 nuclear deal called as JCPOA and started to impose his “Maximum Pressure” policy.
The Trump approach aims at isolating Tehran however; the policy failed once during his first term and probably will be the case now. Tehran managed to join BRICS nations as well as Shanghai cooperation organization. The military cooperation between Russia, China and Iran have been on the rise and the latest joint military drills in Gulf of Oman can be a good signal for the partnership in other areas between the trio.
Soon after the imposition of harsh sanctions on Iranian oil sector the country managed to find new buyers and ways to evade curbs on it oil sales. After Trump 1.0, Joe Biden continued his anti-Iran measures but to no avail.
Israel claims that Iran is being in a weak position regionally after what it calls defeat of Hezbollah and Hamas. The whole idea can be challenged based on facts on the ground. Tel Aviv announced goal of ‘totally defeating’ Hamas however the group is still standing. During captive- swap Hamas forces were seen in masses with captured cars, Israeli military equipment and etc. There will be no possible credible future for the Gaza strip without Hamas. Trump’s displacement plan has no buyer in the Arab world and probably Hamas will remain in charge of the coastal strip in one way or another.
On Lebanese front event in the last moments before the truce with Tel Aviv, Hezbollah was capable to carry out missile strikes deep inside Israel and its capabilities still are standing. The funeral procession of late Hezbollah chief, Hassan Nasrallah portrayed the backing of thousands of Lebanese for the group in a moment of political uncertainty.
In Damascus the game is not done yet because the vast rifts among players are at display in recent anti-HTS uprising. Many regional and international players have conflicting interest in Syria and it seems that the interim government is unable to properly address them.
Despite U.S. claims of not wanting a regime change in Iran Washington at heart seeks ‘cheap’ change in Tehran. The policy aims to make lives of ordinary people hard in a way that people rise against the government. This way there will be no need to put boots on the ground and regional U.S. allies will be safe from Tehran’s retaliation to military action by U.S. Providing support for anti-Iran elements through vast funding networks, sanctioning Tehran on human rights allegations are all in line with the policy.
Tehran has been able to weather the storms in recent years and violence incitements by West have failed. After death of late Iran president Ebrahim Raisi people swiftly replaced him with Masoud Pezeshkian without any disruption. The election itself can be considered as a big NO to Western pressures. Nearly 50% of eligible voters cast their ballot in a close race.
Iran has time and again emphasized that the Islamic republic will not attend negotiations regarding its nuclear program under pressure, sanctions and coercion. Also an attack on Iranian nuclear sites will take the region to unknown waters regardless of its success. Iran’s retaliation cannot be predicted as seen in “Operation True promise” against Israel. Oil exports from the Persian Gulf and U.S. military bases would be a legitimate target for Tehran. Also the attack will give a good excuse to Iran for pursuing a nuclear bomb as it posses the technology to do so.
Iran has not left the negotiating table and rejecting direct talks with U.S. is not necessarily indication of not wanting to negotiate. Currently Tehran is in talks with the three European countries as well as with Russia and China.
The view from Iran can be better understood by recent remarks of Ayatollah Khamenei when he questioned the reliability of Western promises. He pointed to a recent exchange between the U.S. and Ukrainian presidents in the White House. Ayatollah Khamenei called support of western powers for their allied countries as a mirage and delusion. The leader added the governments that are leaning on the U.S. and Europe should look at what is happening to Ukraine today and what happened to Afghanistan yesterday.
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author