Donald Trump’s declaration in his inaugural address on Monday, that “the golden age of America begins right now,” may align with his electoral promise to Make America Great Again (MAGA). Perhaps it signals an extension of his MAGA slogan. Where MAGA focuses on reclaiming a perceived lost greatness through economic nationalism, deregulation, and “America First” foreign policy, the “Golden Age”, though boastful, could mean a forward-looking promise of prosperity and strength. It implies a renewed sense of optimism but also carries the weight of delivering tangible results in a deeply polarised nation.
Why China Is Important
Trump also pledged to be a “peacemaker and unifier”, which sat well with his anti-war stance. But to make America great again or birth the “golden age of America”, Trump will need more than mere slogans. Common wisdom says that he’ll need to focus on economic recovery, geopolitical stability and ever-deepening domestic division to achieve his goal. But there’s one area most important of all: managing US-China ties, the most critical bilateral relations in the world right now. The geopolitical reality is that there is no other country that threatens the US global hegemony more than China, now and more so in the coming years.
Following Trump’s victory, there have been reams of analyses in Western media and think tank circles, many of which predict the beginning of a second Cold War or the demise of the Chinese economy. Yet, the fact is that while Trump in his election campaign had resolved to slap a 60% tariff on all Chinese imports, following his inauguration, he said he is considering a 10% tariff instead on imports of Chinese-made goods. This may come into effect as soon as February 1. So, while the West unnecessarily and endlessly replay Donald Trump’s first-term rhetoric to paint him as China’s eternal nemesis, the reality this time may be different. Let’s not overlook Trump’s positive gestures towards China and its president in recent days. He went out of his way to invite Chinese President Xi Jinping as a special guest to his inauguration, and, in the run-up to this spectacle, the two leaders even had a phone call. That couldn’t have been to discuss the weather, surely.
All of this suggests that the two leaders can still talk shop.
Trump Chooses Balance
The new US President also came out in favour of the Chinese-owned app TikTok, pledging to delay the enforcement of a US ban; he has even promised to find an American buyer, suggesting a 50% buyout. This comes nearly five years after Trump tried to ban the short-video-sharing platform himself. It went dark in the US for a bit this weekend but was reinstated after Trump’s reassurances.
While signing executive orders on his first day in office, Trump shared his satisfaction with his recent phone call with Xi, saying it was “very good”. And though Xi did not attend the inauguration himself, he dispatched Vice-President Han Zheng to take part in the swearing-in festivities. Han seemed to have a more productive time in Washington than most pundits anticipated. He didn’t waste a moment, meeting Tesla’s Elon Musk, who reiterated his commitment to investing more in China. The Chinese Vice-President also sat down with a group of American business leaders, giving them the classic Chinese pitch: keep those investments flowing, friends.
Trump promised to declare on the very first day in the White House a 10% tariff on imports from all countries, 25% on goods from Canada and Mexico, and 60% on Chinese imports. In his inaugural speech, however, these things were mentioned only in generic terms. No doubt Trump’s return has created a sense of uncertainty, but does it make sense to obsess over tariffs, especially with regard to China?
Who’s The Real Nemesis, Biden or Trump?
Contrary to popular notion that Trump was the ultimate China hawk —what with his administration slapping tariffs on over $360 billion worth of Chinese goods, blacklisting tech firms like Huawei, and issuing at least eight executive orders directly targeting the country—the reality is that Joe Biden had been much tougher. While Trump’s approach was often loud and unilateral, Biden’s strategy was quieter but far more expansive and coordinated, signalling a long-term containment plan rather than a short-term trade skirmish.
Biden didn’t just inherit Trump-era tariffs, he doubled down on them. Not only did he keep most of Trump’s tariffs intact but he also expanded the list of goods subject to higher duties. Last year, he imposed a 100% tariff on Chinese green buses and electric vehicles, a move aimed squarely at countering China’s push for global dominance in the renewable energy sector. Additionally, he tightened export controls on semiconductors and chip-making technologies, effectively cutting China off from critical components required for its tech sector. This was coupled with sanctions targeting firms tied to Chinese military advancements, particularly in AI and quantum computing.
Biden Went All Out On China
Biden went global with his anti-China strategy. He rallied friends and partners to join in pressuring Beijing. Under his administration, the US strengthened the QUAD (a strategic grouping of the US, Japan, India and Australia) and expanded its focus to counter China’s growing influence in the Indo-Pacific. Biden also courted India with unprecedented vigour, offering military deals, economic partnerships and support in global fora to pull New Delhi further into Washington’s orbit. He also gave Prime Minister Narendra Modi a state visit, a rarity in Washington.
That wasn’t all. Biden strengthened NATO’s focus on China, a significant shift for a transatlantic alliance originally centred on Russia. Under his leadership, NATO for the first time identified China as a systemic challenge in its official documents, signalling a broader geopolitical pivot. Also, Biden built a coalition of nations to exclude Chinese tech giants like Huawei and ZTE from critical infrastructure projects, particularly in 5G networks. On the economic front, his administration launched the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF), aimed at offering an alternative to China’s Belt and Road Initiative. By working closely with ASEAN countries, South Korea and Japan, Biden tried to reduce regional dependency on Chinese trade and investment while simultaneously boosting American influence.
Trade War Or Trade Tango?
Even if the anticipation in the West of a second ‘Cold War’ under Trump holds some merit, it’s not going to be a one-sided affair. Let’s not forget that Beijing has been busy laying the groundwork to ensure that American companies remain tethered to China’s vast market. This time, it appears China is ready for whatever the US throws at it, a trade game or a trade tango.
In preparation for any potential economic storm triggered by Trump’s tariffs, China has been quietly and strategically diversifying its trade and investment networks. Their efforts span continents, trade blocs and key partnerships, creating a robust web of economic connections that might just blunt any future US pressure.
Friends In Various Places
Consider China’s deepening relationship with ASEAN. As one of the 17 dialogue partners of the ASEAN Regional Forum, China has ensured that its economic ties in the region are both wide and deep. Together, they established the ASEAN-China Free Trade Area, which is currently being upgraded to cover more ground. The results are staggering: in 2023 alone, China-ASEAN trade volume soared to $911.7 billion. For four consecutive years, China and ASEAN have been each other’s largest trading partners—a testament to the strength and importance of this partnership. In 2024, China’s trade surplus reached nearly $1 trillion, and one-third of it came from trade with the US (as of last year, America maintains its position as the world’s largest economy, with a GDP of just under $29 trillion. China follows as the second-largest, with a GDP of approximately $18.5 trillion).
China has also been a driving force behind the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), one of the largest free trade agreements in history. In effect since January 2022, the RCEP unites 15 Asia-Pacific countries, including Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand and the 10 ASEAN nations. Together, members of this powerhouse grouping account for 30% of the global GDP. Its aim is to eliminate tariffs on 90% of goods over 20 years, smoothening trade flows, and creating unprecedented market access. If Trump’s tariffs are a hammer, then the RCEP is China’s cushion.
China’s engagement with the Arab world has been equally calculated. By making the ties with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) more robust, Beijing has emerged as the largest trading partner for many Arab nations. Trade between China and the Arab world skyrocketed from a modest $36.7 billion in 2004 to a whopping $431.4 billion in 2022. Chinese investments in the Middle East have also surged, targeting manufacturing, energy and infrastructure. This region, long dominated by the US, is increasingly looking eastward.
Further afield, China has widened its economic footprint in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). Beijing has so far poured over $138 billion in loans into the region, providing a vital boost to developing economies. As per the latest data (2021), China’s trade with LAC stood at $445 billion. For many LAC nations, Beijing isn’t just a trading partner but an indispensable ally in development.
In For The Long Game
Closer home, China’s engagement with India shows its diplomatic pragmatism. The thaw in India-China relations, evidenced by Xi’s meeting with Modi at the last BRICS summit, was followed by a de-escalation of military tensions and promises of expanded trade. And, in Australia, Premier Li Qiang’s visit in mid-2024 has revitalised Sino-Australian ties. That’s two key Quad members China has managed to improve relations with, proof of its magnetic pull.
All of this highlights Beijing’s readiness to counter external shocks. Trump can threaten tariffs, but China isn’t going to stand still. It has positioned itself well to play the long game. What’s more, even as analysts obsess over the confrontational aspects of US-China relations, signs of mutual recognition and goodwill persist.
The real question isn’t whether Trump will stick to his campaign rhetoric or temper it in the face of reality—it’s whether America is prepared for a trade war with a China that is far more fortified and resilient than it was four years ago.
So, perhaps it’s time for the West to take a fresh view. Trump’s stance on China is no longer a one-dimensional tale of bluster and bravado. His outreach to Xi—whether strategic, self-serving, or both—suggests he’s playing a more complex game. If anything, the post-inauguration optics reveal that while Trump talks tough, he might just leave a door ajar for negotiations.
(Syed Zubair Ahmed is a London-based senior Indian journalist with three decades of experience with the Western media)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author