The Congress’ 2018 election win broke a streak of three successive wins for the BJP (File).
The ruling BJP has crossed the halfway mark in Madhya Pradesh as counting of votes began – with postal ballots first up – in the Madhya Pradesh Assembly election Sunday morning. At 9.30 am the BJP was ahead in 123 seats with the opposition Congress in 95. These represent a gain of 18 seats for the BJP and a loss of 13 for the Congress, relative to 2018 results.
Traditionally, postal ballots account for a very small percentage of total votes polled.
Among the heavyweights contesting this election, Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan and his predecessor, the Congress’ Kamal Nath, were both leading their respective contests. Mr Chouhan was ahead in Budhni and Kamal Nath in Chhindwara.
Exit polls had predicted a tight BJP vs Congress race, with the odds, perhaps, in favour of the latter.
READ | In Battle For Madhya Pradesh, Congress Out For ‘Revenge’, BJP Plots 5th Win
Four of nine exit polls gave the BJP a comfortable win; three gave it over 139 of the Assembly’s 230 seats.
Madhya Pradesh has been a BJP stronghold – the party has won three of the past four elections – since Digvijaya Singh led the Congress to back-to-back wins in 1993 and 1998. Those wins were the last time the Congress defended a state.
However, fast forward to today and the Congress is confident it can upset the BJP’s apple cart and, crucially, its plans for next year’s Lok Sabha election. The exit polls, however, disagree. Only four predict a return close to the 116+ seats it needs to win.
Even then, in each case the BJP remains within striking distance in a state they have dominated since 2003.
Meanwhile, speaking to reporters this morning, Kamal Nath declared himself “very confident” the Congress will defy exit polls’ prediction, and refused to react to the BJP’s early lead till a clearer picture “at 11 am”. I have not seen any trends, I don’t need to look at any trends till 11 am. I am very confident, I trust the voters of Madhya Pradesh…” he told news agency ANI.
READ | “Have Not Seen Trends, Don’t Need To…”: Kamal Nath
On Thursday too he played down exit polls’ prediction. In a post on X, he said, “I want to remind all Congress workers of their strength… it is because of your hard work and dedication the public has voted overwhelmingly in support of the Congress Party. When the counting of votes begins on December 3, the public will put a stamp on the Congress government.”
READ | “Country Runs By Vision, Not Television”: Kamal Nath After Exit Polls
On Saturday, a day before counting of votes, there was a poster congratulating his becoming Chief Minister for a second time.
According to news agency ANI, the poster – spotted outside the Congress’ Bhopal office – was put up by a party worker.
READ | Spotted. “Congratulations” Poster For Kamal Nath As Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister
However, Shivraj Chouhan remains confident the BJP will return to power and form the state government for a fifth time.
READ | Shivraj Chouhan Says BJP Will Form Government For 5th Time In Madhya Pradesh
“There is no doubt. It is said there is ‘kante ki takkar‘ (a close contest) but there is no such situation. Party workers have toiled and ‘ladli behnas‘ (beneficiaries of his flagship ‘Ladli Behna Yojana‘ scheme) have removed all ‘kante‘ (obstacles),” he said.
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