Mumbai:
India has reportedly paused railway projects in Bangladesh, which were intended to provide connectivity to northeast states through Bangladesh and is planning alternative routes to ensure stability and strategic security in the region. The decision has been attributed to political turmoil and the safety of labour in Bangladesh. The move comes amid worries about the situation in the neighbouring country, especially with anti-India voices being emboldened under the current regime, with calls for closer ties to Pakistan and China.
Major projects like Akhaura-Agartala Rail Link, which is already under construction, and Khulna-Mongla Rail Link are likely to be affected by the decision even as Bangladesh is pivoting towards China and Pakistan at the cost of its current relationship with India which has seen good cooperation when it comes to regional connectivity, especially through railways and waterways. The Dhaka-Tongi-Joydebpur rail expansion is another project that will be affected by this move. Experts suggest these projects would cost around Rs 5,000 crore. Sources say five other planned projects have also been put on hold.
India-Bangladesh ties took a massive hit after Bangladesh’s interim government’s Chief Advisor, Md Yunus, commented on the northeast and invited China to expand in the region. Since then, India has withdrawn transhipment rights for Bangladesh, and Dhaka has halted the import of yarn from India. Rail connectivity projects have been actively pushed by India to improve regional connectivity, and the cooperation between the two countries that saw progress in the last few years has suffered due to the current instability and anti-India statements, including calling for Chinese expansion in the region.
The Agartala-Akhaura Railway Link
In November 2023, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his then Bangladeshi counterpart Sheikh Hasina jointly inaugurated three projects via virtual mode, including a key rail link between Tripura’s Nischintapur and Gangasagar in Bangladesh. The cross-border rail project near Tripura’s capital, Agartala, and Akhaura in Bangladesh was expected to boost cross-border trade and significantly reduce the travel time between Agartala and Kolkata via Dhaka when fully operational. When fully completed, the cross-border rail link was to cut the travel time from Kolkata to Agartala from 36 hours to 12 hours and avoid the detour through the Siliguri Corridor. Currently, all trains to the northeastern states pass through the narrow corridor also known as the Chicken’s Neck.
The Khulna-Mongla Rail Link
The Khulna-Mongla Port Rail Line Project has been implemented under the Government of India’s concessional Line of Credit with a total project cost of $388.92 million. The project entails the construction of approximately 65 km of broad-gauge rail route between Mongla Port and the existing rail network in Khulna. With this, Mongla, the second largest port of Bangladesh, is connected with the broad-gauge railway network. In 2024, India obtained the operational rights to a terminal at Bangladesh’s Mongla port, which has significant implications for regional cooperation and transport. India currently has transhipment access to both Chittagong and Mongla ports, for movement of goods from India to the northeastern states by bypassing the detour through the chicken’s neck corridor.
The Dhaka-Tongi-Joydebpur Rail Expansion Project
This ambitious project, being constructed with help from India, was supposed to be completed by 2027, but it has seen massive delays. It was aimed at increasing connectivity and capacity in central Bangladesh, particularly around Dhaka.
Bangladesh had sought additional funding for this project amidst cost overruns due to certain issues. Physical work on the project could start only in February 2019, mainly due to complexities over the design and tendering process, and only around half the work has been completed on the project.
Ties Take Another Hit
India is considerably invested in the ongoing rail projects in Bangladesh, but recent developments have led many experts to question whether, in the current situation, India can continue the level of engagement it had achieved in the last few years. With Bangladesh pivoting towards China and Pakistan, observers of the India-Bangladesh relationship are concerned that India could face challenges in implementing projects that are built on bilateral cooperation and interest. But, during Md Yunus’s recent visit to China and talks with the Chinese President, the possibility of China investing in railway infrastructure in Bangladesh was discussed. Sources say China plans to push its investments in infrastructure in Bangladesh under its Belt and Road Initiative. Chinese investments in roads and railways could cost US$ 4.45 billion for roads, railways, and ports.
Does India Have Other Options?
Securing the northeast through alternate connectivity routes remains one of India’s key challenges, but with the rapid development of railways in the northeast, ensuring that other routes are available during a critical scenario is something that security experts are already discussing. As mentioned, currently all road and rail routes to the northeastern states pass through the Chicken’s Neck or Siliguri Corridor, which at its narrowest is only about 22km wide, and is considered a critical area from a security perspective. Actively focusing on developing railways through Nepal and Bhutan could be one of the ways to develop alternate routes, but there are challenges here, too. But if the current situation continues in Bangladesh, a rethink will have to be done, experts from the region say.
India and Bangladesh have not commented on these developments officially, but officials in both India and Bangladesh agree that over the last few months the engagement with Bangladesh, across sectors, has seen a slowdown that makes it challenging to push through with any bi-lateral project, especially those like railways which require a lot of coordination. Bangladesh, sources say, has not made much effort to assuage the concerns of India on a host of issues that have been flagged by India. For now, a pause seems to be the only option, according to sources familiar with the developments.
Bangladesh claims it has stabilised the situation, but the developments have not inspired confidence about a return to normalcy.