Damascus:
In a seismic moment for the Middle East, Islamist rebels in Syria announced President Bashar al-Assad’s ouster on Sunday after seizing control of Damascus, forcing him to flee and ending his family’s decades of rule after more than 13 years of civil war. The fall of Bashar al-Assad came as a major blow to the influence of Russia and Iran in the heart of the region, key allies who propped up the President during critical periods in the conflict.
The end of the Assad family’s five-decade rule in Syria is set to reshape the power balance in the region, with regional and global forces rising to fill the power vacuum left behind by the dramatic regime change. While the Western and Arab states, along with Israel, would try to curtail Iran’s influence in Syria, it is unlikely for them to support a radical Islamist regime to replace Assad, according to a report by CNN.
For Iran the fall of Syria could shatter its so-called Axis of Resistance, comprising allied states and militia.
What Led To Asaad’s Fall?
Rebels reportedly were encouraged to make an advance for Aleppo last week after Israel debilitated Hezbollah and weakened Iran’s footprint in the region. “Due to the Lebanese war and decrease in Hezbollah forces, (Assad’s) regime has less support,” Hadi al-Bahra, a Syrian opposition leader representing anti-Assad groups told news agency Reuters in an interview.
He added that Iran-backed militias also have fewer resources, and Russia is providing less air cover to Assad’s forces due to its “Ukraine problem”.
What’s At Stake?
Iran
For years, Syria was used by Iran to expand its regional influence through proxy groups stationed in the majorly Sunni nation. Tehran, along with its proxy Hezbollah, have helped the Syrian government forces regain lost territory. The Islamic Republic also sent its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commanders to advise Assad’s military, which proved instrumental in keeping the President in Power.
However, since the beginning of the Middle Eastern conflict in October last year after the Palestinian militant group Hamas launched its attack on Israel, Hezbollah pulled its forces out of Syria to focus on its war with Israel. Iran has been reportedly using supply routes in Syria to transfer weapons to its proxies fighting Israel. The fall of Aleppo and potentially other cities bordering Lebanon could disrupt those routes, placing Iran in a difficult position. Losing Syria would be “a huge blow” for Iran, according to experts.
“The investment Iranians have made in Syria is very significant, it’s an important land bridge to Lebanon, but also the alliance the Iranians have with the Assad regime has lasted across the Islamic Republic’s history,” Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Washington DC-based Quincy Institute told CNN.
As per the report, Iran would want to use its proxies in the region as leverage in potential talks with incoming US President Donald Trump’s administration.
“If Iran loses too much of their position in the region, will they be too weak to negotiate? But if they fight back to try and retain as much of that position as possible, do they risk escalating the war to the point where diplomacy may no longer be possible?” Mr Parsi said.
Lebanon
As per experts, the events in Syria are bound to impact Lebanon, where a truce deal between Tehran’s proxy Hezbollah and Israel is hanging by a thread. Hezbollah was a crucial player in keeping the Asaad regime afloat, but it has been weakened by the war with Israel.
In case the Syrian insurgents manage to reach the Lebanese border, Hezbollah’s key logistics and supply route from Iran– which passes through Syria and Iraq– could be cut off, confining Tehran’s proxy in Lebanon.
“One of the causes of what is happening today in Syria is the control of the Syrian-Lebanese borders to prevent the passage of strategic weapons into Lebanon,” Euronews quoted Antoine Habchi, Lebanese MP from the Bekka Valley, as saying.
“Turkey has tried to make sure that the Lebanese borders are not a route for the transfer of strategic weapons through Syria. Even al-Assad doesn’t control passage through his own territory here, which is controlled by other factions and international forces, and notably Iran,” Mr Habchi added.
Turkey
Turkey had been seeking to increase its leverage with President Assad to boost its standing in the region and allow it to keep closer control of Kurdish separatists, located along the Turkish-Syria border, to create a buffer zone. Ankara had represented the rebels in negotiations with Russia in the past decade, which eventually led to a ceasefire agreement between the Syrian government and Opposition forces in 2020.
Despite its support for opposition forces, Turkey has not ruled out a rapprochement with Syria. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has long opposed Kurdish nationalism. He has time and again said that his ultimate goal is to eliminate the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), a Kurdish far-left militant and political group based in Turkey and Iraq that has fought the Turkish state for more than three decades.
Another goal for Ankara is to reportedly maintain control over oil-rich Syrian sanctuaries in semi-autonomous northern areas of the country.
Israel
The imbalance in power in Syria has also caught Israel in a difficult position. While President Assad viewed Israel as an enemy, he did not pose a direct threat to Tel Aviv and opted to not respond to the regular Israeli strikes in Syria over the past year.
However, Asaad’s regime allowed its territory to be used by Iran to supply weapons to Hezbollah in Lebanon. But the fall of Mr Asaad did not come as a relief to Israel as the group leading the rebellion in Syria is Hayat Tahrir Al Sham (HTS) whose leader Abu Muhammad Al Jolani is a former al Qaeda fighter with an Islamist ideology that opposes Israel.
“Israel is in between Iran, its proxies and Syria’s Islamic rebels,” Avi Melamed, a former Israeli intelligence official, told CNN.
“None of the choices are good as far as Israel is concerned but for the time being Iran and its proxies are weakened, which is good,” he said
The newly revived conflict has allowed Tel Aviv to resume strikes on targets in Syrian territory. Suspected Israeli airstrikes hit Mazzeh district of Damascus on Sunday, Reuters reported.
As per the report, jets believed to be Israeli also bombed the Khalkhala air base in southern Syria which was evacuated by the Syrian army overnight. The regional security sources also told the agency that at least six strikes hit the main air base in the north of the city of Suweida which has a large stockpile of rockets and missiles left by Syrian troops.
The attack appeared aimed at preventing these weapons from falling into the hands of radical groups, one source told Reuters.