On January 20, 1981, on the day Ronald Reagan took over as the new US president, Iran freed 52 American hostages it had been holding for over a year. That projected Reagan as a strong leader sending a powerful signal to US allies and its foes. His predecessor, Jimmy Carter, did all the negotiations and tried his best to have the hostages released while he was still the president. But Tehran would not let him take the glory.
Forty-four years on, Donald Trump is taking the credit for the Gaza ceasefire deal, which will come into effect a day before his inauguration, cementing his reputation as a tough leader. Biden can say that the deal happened under his watch. But there is no doubt that it was Trump whose pressure led to achieve the goal.
He declared on his social media platform Truth Social: “This EPIC ceasefire agreement could have only happened as a result of our Historic Victory in November, as it signalled to the entire World that my Administration would seek Peace and negotiate deals to ensure the safety of all Americans, and our Allies.”
Days after he threatened that there better be a Gaza deal by his January 20 inauguration or “all hell would break out”, his special envoy to the Middle East, Steven Witkoff, landed in Tel Aviv last Saturday. It was the Sabbath, the day of rest for Jews. But Witkoff insisted on meeting the Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, that day. At their meeting, he conveyed Trump’s message that the incoming President of the United States wanted to end the Gaza war and demanded that a ceasefire agreement be signed immediately.
The format of the three-stage deal announced on Wednesday was proposed by Biden in May last year and was later also endorsed by the UN Security Council. But both Hamas and Israel kept dragging the negotiations over it. In Isreal, Netanyahu refused to give any concessions to Hamas and continued with his brute military operation in Gaza.
The right-wing parties in Israel’s ruling coalition also threatened to bring down the Netanyahu government if he agreed to a ceasefire deal. Indeed, one right-wing leader, Ben Gvir, has openly admitted to successfully blocking previous attempts.
Trump Surprised Israelis
Trump’s pressure to agree to the ceasefire has come as a shock to right-wing Israelis, who hailed his election victory in November. In his first term, Trump moved the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem and recognised Israel’s sovereignty over the Golan Heights, a Syrian territory occupied by Israel after the 1967 war with Arabs.
When Trump announced the appointment of an Evangelical Christian Mike Huckabee as his ambassador to Israel, many right-wing Israelis were thrilled, particularly those who wanted new Israeli settlements in Gaza. Huckabee is on record saying there is no such thing as the West Bank or the occupation.
So, why has Trump pushed for the ceasefire? Apart from taking credit for ending one of the most brutal wars in recent history, Trump may like to focus on larger issues, like relations with China and ending the Russia-Ukrainian conflict. In the Middle East, he wants Saudi Arabia to recognise Israel, which will be a huge achievement of his administration. With the continuing war in Gaza and the terrible sufferings of Palestinians at the hands of Israel, Saudis could not afford to consider having diplomatic ties with Israel.
But Trump is unpredictable, which is also a reason for both Hamas and Israel to accept the ceasefire deal. Turkey, Egypt and Qatar—the host of ceasefire negotiations—pressured Hamas to accept the agreement. And while Netanyahu may have defied Biden for so long, he could not do the same to Trump and must keep him on his side.
Starting on Sunday, January 19, the ceasefire will last 42 days. It will see the exchange of 33 Israeli hostages detained by Hamas and Palestinians held in Israeli prisons. The deal will also enable the return of displaced people in Gaza to return to whatever is left of their homes, and daily delivery of food and other supplies by hundreds of trucks.
A Huge Challenge
But things can still go wrong. There can be accidents or attacks from either side, which could break the truce. But even if the guns in Gaza do go silent on Sunday and the ceasefire holds for its intended period, the real challenge will come in the second stage of the agreement, when negotiations for ending the war and return of all remaining hostages would begin. Is Israel ready for a permanent end to the war? And what will stop a Palestinian activist from firing at Israel, given the bitterness in the community after Israel’s campaign? There is not a single Palestinian left in Gaza who has not lost a friend or relative at the hands of Israel in this war.
The third and final phase will involve the reconstruction of Gaza, whose infrastructure has been destroyed by the Israeli bombardments. The Arab countries that funded reconstruction in the past will be reluctant to do it this time unless they are sure that Israel will not destroy it again. It is also not clear who will govern Gaza now, as Hamas, even in its much-weakened form, will be unacceptable to both Israel and the United States.
How Trump will react in the second and third phases is not possible to predict given his nature. In office, he may act differently. But both Israel and Hamas know that things have dramatically changed over the past 15 months when the current war began with the attack on Israel by the militant group on October 7, 2023.
Israel’s military response was swift and massive. One by one, it eliminated all the top leaders of Hamas and its ally Hezbollah and destroyed their military infrastructure. This also led to a regime change in Syria, where Bashar Assad was forced to flee the country and seek refuge in Russia. Hezbollah’s primary backer, Iran, has also been weakened following Assad’s fall.
The Cost Of Israel’s Military Response
Israel may have succeeded in decapitating the leadership of Hamas and Hezbollah and destroying their war machines. But the human cost of its military response in Gaza has also hit its international image and sparked a global outcry. Its brutal military campaign killed over 47,000 people in Gaza, displaced most of its 2.3 million population and destroyed more than 80% of residential buildings. Most of the victims have been innocent civilians who are now living in famine-like conditions, with hardly any access to health, food, clean water or proper shelter.
For the first time, Israel has faced genocide accusations at the International Court of Justice. The International Criminal Court even issued arrest warrants against Netanyahu and his former defence minister on charges of war crimes and crimes against humanity.
A successful ceasefire may bring an immediate end to the sufferings of Gaza’s population, and the end of the current war may achieve a little more. But that does not mean the end of the wider conflict between Palestinians and Israel. While the Gaza war raged on, Israel expanded its settlements in the West Bank, and violence by settlers in that part of the territory has also increased in recent months.
Peace in the Middle East continues to remain elusive. The Palestinian conflict is unlikely to be resolved without a two-state solution, as proposed by most countries, including India. However, the current Israeli government has rejected that idea. Trump may have helped push the ceasefire deal, but he has shown no interest so far in supporting a two-state solution.
(Naresh Kaushik is a senior journalist and commentator based in London.)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author