The past few weeks, Afghan media has been abuzz with reports about the Taliban having handed over the Bagram air base, north of Kabul, to the US. The original report was made by journalist Zark Shabab. American C-17 aircraft recently landed at the base, bringing military vehicles, equipment, and senior intelligence officials, including that of the Deputy Chief of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA).
It is important to note that the report comes almost on the heels of a high-profile US delegation visit to Kabul. Zalmay Khalilzad, the former US special envoy for Afghanistan, and Adam Boehler, the US presidential envoy for hostage affairs, met with Amir Khan Muttaqi, the Taliban’s foreign minister, in Kabul, on March 20.
‘Move Beyond The War’
The statement said the discussions focused on bilateral relations, consular services for Afghan citizens in the US, and prisoner exchange. Muttaqi welcomed the US delegation, calling the visit “a positive step toward improving bilateral relations”. He reiterated that the Taliban seek “balanced foreign relations” and are “committed to engaging with all parties in a constructive manner”. He further stated that “both countries should move beyond the consequences of the 20-year war and build positive political and economic relations”.
The meeting resulted in the release of two American prisoners held captive by the Taliban.
The news also follows US President Donald Trump’s first cabinet meeting in his new term. During a discussion on Afghanistan with his Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegseth, Trump stated that in his previous Afghanistan withdrawal plan, his administration was going to “keep Bagram… not because of Afghanistan but because of China”. Trump further claimed that China was occupying it now because “Biden gave it up”, and said, “So, we are going to keep that.” This gives us an idea of what the Bagram air base means for America.
Why Bagram Matters
Built in the 1950s by the Soviets during the Cold War, Bagram is one of the biggest air bases in the world today, with one of the most powerful runways, constructed of heavy concrete and steel. It became a vital military hub for the Soviet Union after its invasion of Afghanistan in 1979, and they vastly expanded it. After the Soviet withdrawal in 1989, the base came under the control of the Moscow-backed government, and later, the mujahideen administration during the 1990s.
When the Americans displaced the Taliban following the 9/11 attacks, US forces occupied the airstrip. Bagram was further expanded. A second runway was built, with permanent barracks, gyms, supermarkets and restaurants. It eventually became the largest US military hub during America’s 20-year war in Afghanistan. In 2019, Donald Trump visited it to meet US troops. Ultimately though, the base was vacated in 2021 just before the Taliban took over Kabul, following the Doha Accords signed between the US and the Taliban. Bagram would serve as the most convenient base to keep a watch on China, Central Asia, and, of course, Iran.
Who Controls Bagram?
The Taliban have refuted these claims, just as it has refuted Trump’s assertion that China is controlling the base. China, too, has denied these claims. However, what the Trump administration has not refuted are claims of American control over Bagram.
Well-placed sources say that it is not unusual for the Taliban to reject claims of US control over Bagram. After all, it waged war against the Republican government and US troops precisely because they did not want any “foreign troops” on Afghan soil.
What is important, however, is that the Taliban and US intelligence engage with each other. More recently, the issue of $7 billion worth of military hardware left behind by US troops in Afghanistan reared its head; the Trump administration has reportedly demanded its wares back, but the Taliban has refused to do so.
Why Taliban Wants To Talk
In this context, the recent high-level US delegation to Afghanistan and the freeing of American hostages by the Taliban assumes great significance. It’s not for mere optics that the Taliban has signalled its willingness to engage with the US. There is a good reason to do so. Trump has reversed the sanctions put in place by the Joe Biden administration, which had restricted American officials from visiting Kabul because of the human rights transgressions by the Taliban.
On its part, by engaging with the US, the Taliban would aim to obtain political legitimacy and access to Afghan’s frozen funds – pegged at roughly $9 billion. Most of this money is held in US banks. Lack of recognition as the Afghan government, while simultaneously being on the UN and US terror list, with sanctions, deprives the Taliban of the right to access these funds. It will also want the US to continue providing aid to Afghanistan, something Trump has threatened to revoke. In this context, US recognition would open up the possibility of being officially recognised by other countries, too, though many of them already engage with the Taliban.
Hence, a covert deal between the US and the Taliban regarding Bagram is not improbable, given it offers a good leverage for both.
No Bounty For Haqqani
Here, the recent act of the Trump administration, of lifting the bounty for the capture of Sirajuddin Haqanni, who heads the Haqqani group within the Taliban, is instructive. It also points to yet another layer of complexity in the intricate web of Afghan politics. The Haqqani network has a complex relationship with the Kandahar Shura of the Taliban, headed by Mullah Hibatullah Akhundzade. For some time now, differences between the two have simmered, with Sirajuddin Haqanni spending time away from Afghanistan. More recently, American officials met with Sirajuddin in the UAE – not Doha, where the Taliban has its representative office. Following that, the US announced that it was lifting bounties on three senior Taliban leaders, all belonging to the Haqqani network, including Sirajuddin.
The Taliban’s hosting of the US delegation and the release of American hostages followed these moves by Sirajuddin Haqanni, who is believed to have perturbed the Kandahar Shura. Against this labyrinthine workings of Afghan politics, the Americans are demanding weapons handover or control over Bagram. Given the Taliban’s straitened position, worsened by the muscle-flexing by the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), the ISIS-KP, and even factions within the Taliban – along with a tricky conflict with Pakistan – a deal on Bagram is entirely possible.
(The author is a journalist and political analyst)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author